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The stakes — public record
AqtaBio's backtest shows risk 0.82 for Hubei province 53 days before WHO's 31 Dec 2019 notification. Global cost: $12.5T (IMF) to $16T (JAMA). 7M+ confirmed deaths.
IMF · JAMA · WHO
WHO declared PHEIC two months after the first cases outside Africa. Surveillance systems weren't ready for human-to-human spread; the US peaked before its own domestic emergency was declared.
WHO · CDC
11,325 deaths. Roughly three months between index case and international response. Regional economic loss estimated at $53B.
WHO · World Bank
ECDC's reinforced mandate took effect. National prevention, preparedness and response plans are now stress-tested by ECDC. Disease X scenarios are formally part of the EU framework.
EUR-Lex · ECDC